New research indicates that while AI’s influence on employment has been minimal to date, both employees and employers anticipate significant shifts in the future; the precise nature of these changes remains uncertain.
A recent survey from the US National Bureau of Economic Research reveals a divergence in expectations: senior executives foresee job reductions due to AI integration, whereas employees believe it will generate more employment opportunities.
With widespread conjecture surrounding this nascent technology, the NBER’s report, provocatively named “Firm data on AI,” draws on a survey of 6,000 companies across four nations, yet it yields limited definitive findings.
Over 80% of executives polled indicated that AI had exerted no influence on job levels or productivity in the preceding three years. Nevertheless, projections for the subsequent three years suggest a shift, with AI anticipated to elevate productivity by 1.4%, expand output by 0.8%, and reduce employment by 0.7%. This predicted job decrease stands in stark opposition to the 0.5% employment growth expected by the employees surveyed for the identical timeframe.
Prior studies hint that management’s predictions may be accurate. Evidence already points to AI’s impact, particularly on entry-level positions. And IT professionals believe that their jobs will be significantly affected by AI.
A definite trend has emerged: AI is rapidly becoming an indispensable element of daily work operations. The NBER survey, encompassing the US, UK, Germany, and Australia, revealed that approximately 69% of companies, especially newer and more efficient ones, are already deploying AI, primarily for generating text. Furthermore, 72% of senior executives report using AI personally in their work, albeit for just 1.5 hours weekly on average.
