The era is fast approaching where individuals with a mere concept can craft an application or website within hours.
As Ferris Bueller famously quipped, “Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” This adage holds particularly true for the realm of Artificial Intelligence. Indeed, the world of AI is evolving at an astonishing pace, comparable to the rapid dissemination of insider trading tips on Wall Street.
The financial markets certainly reflected this swift movement recently. The S&P 500 Software and Services Index experienced a significant downturn, shedding approximately $830 billion in market value over six consecutive trading days, concluding on February 4th. This substantial loss primarily affected SaaS companies, prompting the stark term “SaaSpocalypse.” The core reason for this apprehension was Anthropic’s introduction of Claude Cowork, which many observers believe could render existing SaaS applications obsolete, or at the very least, significantly diminish their worth.
Upon further reflection, I find it increasingly difficult to disagree with this assessment.
With Claude Code capable of resolving software bugs, is a Jira ticket truly necessary? Why consult a legal document website when Claude.ai can draft your will, customized precisely to your needs, all for a single monthly fee? Do you truly need 100 Salesforce licenses if 10 individuals, empowered by AI agents, can accomplish the same workload?
The answers to these queries undoubtedly spell trouble for SaaS companies. This trend is poised to intensify, which could be seen as either detrimental or beneficial, depending on one’s perspective.
We are entering an era characterized by an immense surplus of intelligence, yet if Naval’s perspective holds true—and I believe it does—this abundance will never fully satisfy our demand. The ultimate consequences of this are, admittedly, yet to be fully understood. Nevertheless, I feel compelled to offer some speculation.
Historically, when a surging demand for a particular resource has been met, it has profoundly reshaped the job market. For instance, the advent of electricity eliminated the need for items like hand-cranked tools and gas lamps, but simultaneously created a vast demand for electricians, power plant technicians, and manufacturers of electrical household appliances. Electricity’s impact, of course, cascaded throughout the economy. Similarly, the invention of the transistor fueled the demand for computers, leading to the gradual disappearance of roles such as secretaries, human calculators, and slide rule producers.
What about today? The demand for AI is insatiable. And it will almost certainly bring about significant changes to labor markets. Will human beings continue to write code for much longer? I strongly doubt it.
For us developers, the capabilities of coding agents are rapidly advancing every few months, and this acceleration shows no signs of slowing. Both OpenAI and Anthropic have unveiled new large language models in recent weeks, garnering enthusiastic reviews from the development community. The race is on—and it’s uncertain how soon the next powerful iterations will emerge.
We are rapidly approaching a time when anyone with an innovative concept will be able to develop an application or a website within just a few hours. The very definition of “software developer” will undergo a significant transformation. Or perhaps the term will become as anachronistic as “buggy whip manufacturer.” Only time will reveal its fate.
While this prospect might seem disheartening to some, if history is any guide, AI will also ignite a surge of new professions and job titles that we currently cannot even imagine. If you had told a lamplighter in 1880 that his great-grandchild would hold a title like “cloud services manager,” he would likely have perceived you as quite mad.
Furthermore, if an hour of AI processing can soon achieve what once required 100 hours of a consultant’s time at $200 per hour, it’s inevitable that we humans will invent software and services that are currently beyond our comprehension.
I am confident that my own great-grandchild will occupy a professional role whose title is utterly inconceivable in our present day.
